Russia's Stance on Israel-Iran Escalation: Chaos Beneficial, Full-Scale War Unwanted

Russia relies on Iran for military support in Ukraine but maintains a complex relationship with Hezbollah.

Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) shakes hands with Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Akbar Ahmadian (right) during their meeting at the BRICS summit in St. Petersburg, Russia, on Thursday, September 12, 2024 [Kristina Kormilitsyna/Sputnik/Kremlin/Pool via AP Photo].

By mahbub

Anna Levina, a Russian researcher and photographer living in Beirut, has been preparing for Israel’s assault on Lebanon by stocking up on supplies. She still has non-perishable goods in her kitchen from last October when Hezbollah and Israel began exchanging missiles.

“The situation is unpleasant, but I’ve been expecting it for a year,” Levina said, referring to the dramatic escalation of Israeli missile strikes over the past two weeks, which have killed more than 2,000 people, including in Beirut. On Tuesday, Israel launched ground operations in southern Lebanon, engaging Hezbollah fighters in combat.

Levina described the strikes, saying, “Israel is bombing residential buildings. Just now, there was another air strike three kilometers from me on a medical center.” She added, “It’s difficult to cope with this on a human level.”

For Russia, the expanding conflict poses strategic challenges. Under President Vladimir Putin, Russia’s foreign policy has focused on creating a "multipolar world," presenting an alternative to the U.S.-led global order. Analysts argue that the escalation between Israel, Iran, and Lebanon threatens Russia’s position as it navigates its complex relationships in the region.

“The Arab-Israeli conflict is of serious concern to Russia,” Alexey Malinin, a Russian political expert, told Al Jazeera. He noted that while Russia has called for diplomatic solutions, it often faces opposition, particularly from the U.S., which strongly backs Israel. Malinin criticized U.S. policies, claiming they contribute to turning Lebanon into a battlefield.

While condemning Israel’s ground invasion of Lebanon, Russia has also benefited from its close military ties with Iran, a key Hezbollah ally. As Ruslan Suleymanov, a Middle East specialist, pointed out, “Russia has become dependent on Iranian weapons,” referring to Iran’s military support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, including drone production and military instructors.

Despite this dependency, analysts agree that Russia does not want a major regional war. “Moscow benefits from chaos, distracting the U.S. from Ukraine, but it does not want a full-scale war,” Suleymanov said.

Levina, reflecting on the broader implications, believes Hezbollah can stall Israel’s advance. “The ground invasion, while unpleasant, shows Israel hasn’t learned from its past mistakes,” she said, referencing the 1982 and 2006 conflicts.