Will Israel’s assault on Lebanon compel Iran to change its strategy?

An Iranian response is inevitable, but analysts suggest that Tehran's leaders aim to carefully calibrate their retaliation.

Smoke rises over southern Lebanon after an Israeli attack, as viewed from Tyre on September 26, 2024 [Amr Abdallah Dalsh/Reuters].

Tehran, Iran – Since the July 31 assassination of Hamas politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran has been carefully weighing its response. The high-profile killing, targeting a figure closely tied to Iran and its “axis of resistance,” has been met with promises of Israeli retribution from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top officials.

Amid this tension, the U.S. and France have called for a temporary ceasefire along the Israel-Lebanon border. Lebanon’s Prime Minister has accused Israel of “spreading terror” at the UN Security Council, while Israel is preparing for a possible ground assault in Lebanon, according to its military chief.

The manner of Haniyeh’s death—believed to involve a projectile, likely a small anti-armor missile—has heightened scrutiny. The Israeli bombardment of Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah, a key member of the Iran-led “axis of resistance,” has intensified pressure on Iranian leaders to consider a more direct response. In the past four days, Israeli military actions have resulted in at least 620 deaths and thousands of injuries across Lebanon, with at least 72 casualties reported on Wednesday alone, marking the deadliest period for Lebanon since its civil war ended nearly 35 years ago. The extensive bombardment has also destroyed homes, infrastructure, and led to significant displacement and loss of life among paramedics and journalists.